Will China launch a military invasion of Taiwan by end of 2027?

Vol · $763.25MLiquidity · $0Ends in · 489d 18h
chance
50%

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if the People's Liberation Army conducts an amphibious landing or large-scale ground assault on Taiwan-controlled territory (including Taiwan main island, Penghu, Kinmen, or Matsu) before 23:59 UTC on Dec 31, 2027, as reported by at least two of Reuters, AP, and AFP. Blockades, missile strikes, or grey-zone incursions alone do not resolve YES.

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53.3¢976
52.9¢2,024
52.5¢1,838
52.1¢1,413
51.7¢3,405
51.3¢1,903
50.9¢2,231
50.5¢4,130
50.1¢Spread 0.4¢
49.7¢5,697
49.3¢2,435
48.9¢2,852
48.5¢1,287
48.1¢2,621
47.7¢1,253
47.3¢1,999
46.9¢1,641

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YES 50¢NO 50¢
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